Seven Unexpected MLB Statistics To Watch In The Second Half

Michael

3 min read

Post on May 18, 2025

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Seven Unexpected MLB Statistics to Watch in the Second Half

The MLB season's first half has delivered plenty of surprises, defying expectations and leaving fans buzzing. But as we head into the crucial second half, it's not just the standings we should be watching. Some unexpected statistics are painting a fascinating picture of the league, hinting at potential playoff contenders and exposing hidden strengths and weaknesses. Let's dive into seven surprising stats that could significantly impact the remainder of the season.

1. The Rise of the "Shift-Beating" Hitter: While the ban on defensive shifts has been a major talking point, the impact is subtle and nuanced. We're seeing a rise in hitters who are actively adjusting their approach to exploit the new defensive alignments. Look beyond the traditional power numbers and examine batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) against shifted defenses. A player with a dramatically improved BABIP since the shift ban might be a key player to watch for a late-season surge.

2. Unexpected Bullpen Dominance: Certain teams boast bullpens exceeding all expectations. Instead of focusing solely on ERA, delve into advanced metrics like FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) to identify relievers who are consistently outperforming their perceived capabilities. These under-the-radar arms could become crucial for playoff runs.

3. The "Stolen Base Surge" and its Impact: While stolen bases aren't a new concept, we're seeing an unexpected increase in successful attempts across the league. Teams previously hesitant to prioritize this aspect of the game are now reaping the rewards. Monitoring stolen base success rates, combined with base-running efficiency metrics, will reveal valuable insights into offensive strategies and potential playoff upsets.

4. Startling Home Run Regression (or Explosion): Not every team's home run totals align with preseason projections. Some projected powerhouses are experiencing a slump, while others are unexpectedly crushing the ball. Don't just look at the raw home run numbers; consider the context – ballpark factors, changes in batting approach, and even injury situations.

5. The Unsung Heroes: Defensive Metrics and Their Impact: Defensive metrics like Outs Above Average (OAA) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) often go unnoticed. However, tracking these statistics can reveal defensive gems that contribute significantly to a team's success, potentially explaining why some teams are overperforming expectations.

6. The Impact of Minor League Call-Ups: This year, several unexpected minor league call-ups are making a substantial impact at the major league level. Monitoring these players' performance post-call-up will highlight future stars and could significantly alter the playoff picture.

7. Pitching Staff Fatigue and Its Correlation with Injuries: As the season progresses, pitching staff fatigue becomes a critical factor. Analyzing pitch counts, rest days, and injury rates within pitching rotations and bullpens will reveal vulnerabilities and potential weaknesses within competing teams.

Conclusion: Analyzing these often-overlooked MLB statistics provides a deeper understanding of team performance and can lead to more accurate predictions for the remainder of the season. Keep an eye on these seven surprising stats; they could be the key to unlocking the surprises of the MLB's second half. What other unexpected stats are you watching? Share your thoughts in the comments below!